Week 5: vs. Oregon Ducks
Week 1 - bye
Husky Home
Week 2, @BYU
Week 3, Air Force
Week 4, Colorado
Week 5, Oregon
Week 6, @Oregon St.
Week 7, ASU
Week 8, @Cal
Week 9, Stanford
Week 10, @Arizona
Week 11, @UCLA
Week 12, WSU
Time once again for the guys in green to drive up to civilization for a weekend. Once again I have spent too much time thinking about football this week.
I'll give you my honest impression of the so-called UW/Duck Rivalry.
1987-1991. Going to UW. Typical rivalry game is WSU, USC. We go along beating the tar out of just about everybody else. (Yes I graduated on time.)
1992-1995. Graduated, going to games, big rivalry is still WSU and USC. Start to notice the Ducks have a lot of attitude and really don't like us for no particular reason.
1995-1996. Noticing Ducks have genuine hatred for UW, beating us even when their team is supposedly not as good as ours. Begin to think maybe it'd be nice to prepare better since they seem to take this game so seriously.
1997-1998. Lambright refuses to get team hyped up for this game, alumns become alarmed. 1997 was a close game, lost on the last play. A very good game to watch, Ducks enjoyed victory a little too eagerly, generally being poor sports and trying to pick fights.
1998 was the only year I can say Oregon SHOULD have won the game. Most of the other games were very close, except in '96 when we spanked them pretty good. I think it was 96, it was an away game. Impression of UW fans: We don't mind having a rivalry against Oregon, just be good sports about it. Some of the closest and best games have come against Oregon in the 90's.
More general stuff: Bellotti is a very good coach, perhaps one of the best coaches in college today. Oregon's turnaround started at exactly the moment he came on as a coordinator, and things just got better when he was promoted. Talent from Washington and California suddenly started signing up in Eugene. (Cribbed from today's PI, but we already knew all this. Read the article, it's a good one.)
Factors for the game:Oregon's potent offense is a little hobbled. If I remember right, Droughns was out for our last meeting too. Herbman Ho-Ching also apparently has an injury, as well as the kicker. The barefoot backup guy from the USC game looked awful, the Ducks could be in big trouble if the game comes down to field goals. Feeley is an extremely good quarterback. I think he'll be a top draft pick very soon. Receivers are very good as usual.
This plays badly to UW's weakness, the secondary. The hope once again, as per BYU, will be to pressure the QB to take some stress off of the CB's. We could see a lot of blitzing. Unfortunately Feeley has good poise and seems unshaken by pressure. Quick-outs may burn the Dawgs again. Without much of a Duck running game UW will have an advantage here, IF they can pressure Feeley, and stop any sort of running game Oregon installs. Oregon was unable to run against USC, but they have an above-average run D. The Huskies are not as good, but close, so we can reasonably ass u me the same.
UW's offense showed excellent strides last week, putting together drive after drive on the ground. It opened the passing game, especially to the TE's, which CU seemingly did not expect. If the Huskies can run again, look for them to try the option and mix in some short passes. By mixing in Paul Arnold with Hurst we should be able to show some good looks. Braxton Cleman may be out for the game. This is not as damaging has having Droughns out for Oregon. We still have no long threat, although rumor has it some freshman speedsters may come into the game. Jeurgens and Harris remain short-range threats, look for some screens and quick-outs.
Ducks defense is not really excellent, but they're good at forcing turnovers. UW doesn't need help forcing turnovers, they do it quite well all by themselves. If we cough up the ball again it'll be a doomed effort.
Key elements:1) Turnovers. Huskies are prone to dropping the ball and throwing interceptions.
2) Can UW defense pressure Feeley? Without Droughns or Herbman their job will be easier, but not easy. LB's must pressure and CB's must play tight.
3) "Revenge factor." Seems like there's some revenge factor in every game, I'm getting a little tired of it. Anyway it's no secret Bellotti would like to get back at Neu. Huskies would like to not lose at home again to the Ducks.
Prediction:
W/o their running backs Oregon's prolific offense is somewhat hurt. Ordinarily I would give them a possible total of 40 points. I have to subtract 11 if both of their starters are hurt. Driver's seat for Rose Bowl, +3. Kicker injured, -3. Huskies turn over the ball, +5. 31 total.
If UW can run I give them a possible 35 points. They are turnover prone so -5. At home +2. 32 total. IF Huskies can run.
Another close one at Montlake no matter what math you use.
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- COMMENTS -
Looks like I got one right for a change. Going by the key elements:
1) Turnovers. The Huskies committed 0, Ducks 1 (or was it 2?) At any rate, it really helped.
2) UW Defense. The Dawgs managed to stop the run, and Feeley was still able to find quick-out targets. The problem
with Feeley is he's capable of scoring in like 60 seconds. The defense harrassed him a little but only for one sack. It turned out to be good enough.
3) I'm not sure if the "revenge factor" had anything to do with this game. The players came out and played 4 quarters of solid footbal - that's about all there is to it.
Next week... The Dennis Ericson Beavers.