Husky Football Week 12: vs. Big Ten champ Purdue
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ROSE BOWL

A 4 minute guide to the Boilermakers.

Purdue finished their year 8-3, (6-2 conference) narrowly winning the Big-10. Their losses were @Notre Dame (#23, now #10), @Penn State (unranked), @Michigan State (unranked). At home they were very tough, going undefeated against some very good teams. Here's how their season played out.

Beat Central Michigan, 48-0. CMU is an awful program, going 2-9 for the season and 1-4 in the Mid-American conference. A warm-up against a worse program than Washington's season opener vs. Idaho.

Beat Kent State, 45-10. An even worse Mid-American representative, Kent State went 1-10 for the year (0-6 in conference).

Lost at Notre Dame, 23-21. Notre Dame won on a last-minute kick after scoring 17 points off Purdue mistakes. Purdue passed for 221 yards and ran for 177 against a solid Irish defense. Although they had better stats in nearly every category, ND found a way to win this game despite being held to 78 yards rushing and 158 passing. Key Purdue stats: Brees 221 yards passing, 1 int. 78 yards in penalties. Allowed 3 sacks on Brees.

Beat Minnesota 38-24. Minnesota came off of a good year in football and did not have a bad team this year. Brees started his Heisman campaign here, throwing for a Big Ten record 408 yards (33 of 49) and rushed for 88 yards. Countering their Notre Dame philosophy, Purdue threw early and often. It worked. Key stats: 409 yds passing, 33 of 50 completed passes (66%). Despite passing, held the ball for 35:31 minutes vs. 24:29 by Minnesota.

Lost at Penn State 22-20. Penn State had an awful year, but this was one of their high points. I mark this up more as a win due to pride than anything. Penn State beat Purdue on the ground, running for 221 yards (5yd per carry average). Again, Purdue threw early and often but could not stop the running game of the Lions. Brees was sacked 5 times, a season high.

Beat #6 Michigan 32-31. Another narrow victory (sounds familiar). Brees completed 32 of 44 (73%) for 286 yards and also rushed for 80. Purdue rallied from 18 points down at the half, with two receivers gaining over 100 yards and 4 catching touchdown passes. Key stats: 286 yards passing AND 244 yard rushing (5.5 ypc). Purdue this time allowed no sacks and had only 1 turnover. Allowed Michigan 75% passing completion (26-35) and 256 yards in the air. Lowe ran for 126 yards.

Won at #18 Northwestern 41-28. Perhaps their most convincing victory over a strong team, Brees threw for 239 yards and ran for 56. Purdue adjusted to the Wildcat's no-huddle spread offense and stopped them after the first quarter. Heisman talk started again here. Purdue also rushed for 222 yards (4.7ypc). Lowe ran for 174 yards.

Won at Wisconsin 30-24. Purdue broke the road-loss blues by winning in overtime off a blocked field goal returned for a touchtown. Brees threw for 274 yards (21 of 43, 49%). Statistically it was a close game. Purdue had 145 yards rushing, Lowe had 77 yards on 13 carries (6 ypc).

Beat #13 Ohio State. 3 4th quarter touchtowns pulled Purdue ahead for good as Brees threw for 455 yards. Ohio State stopped the Purdue running game as the Boilermakers averaged about .9 yards per carry. 455 yards passing made up for it. Purdue allowed 208 yards in the air and 70 yards rushing against a good Buckeye team. Key stats: 4 Brees interceptions (his worst ever) and 60% passing. Pressure at the line caused some big mistakes in Purdue's game. Again, sounds familiar.

Lost at Michigan State 30-10. This upset is holds some clues to beating Purdue. Michigan State was #2 against the pass in the NCAA. Brees went 26 of 43 (60%) and had 3 ints. Purdue never really threatened. The Spartans featured a QB who can pass and run effectively. Brees still threw for 279 yards (26 for 43). Key stats: Michigan State ran for 292 yards on 51 carries (5.7ypc) and controlled the possession clock 35mins vs. 25. Purdue held to 79 yards on the ground. Purdue lost this one because they lost at the the line of scrimmage and could not stop the run.

Beat Indiana 41-13. Like the Huskies, Purdue dominated their in-state rival to clinch the Rose Bowl. Also like the Huskies, they did it on the ground. Lowe had 208 yards and Brees had 216 yards on 20 of 29 passing (69%). Indiana dropped back to guard against the pass and Purdue adjusted - simple as that. Purdue did give up 205 yards rushing (Indiana has a mobile QB) and had no sacks against the Hoosiers.

OBSERVATIONS:

  • Purdue does best by opening the passing game, and also gain valuable yards by Brees' scambing ability. Sounds like somebody we know. They rely on the pass but can run, often gaining over 200 yds on the ground. They play much better at home than they do on the road, losing to some questionable teams while away. However at home they beat some very good Big Ten teams. Brees is a legitimate star and one of the best quarterbacks ever in college football.

  • Purdue's defense is not as good as many the Huskies faced in the Pac-10. Purdue allowed big yards both passing and running through the year to various teams. In the key games they lost, they allowed lots of rushing yards and could not run the ball. In no games was Brees held to under 250 yards passing, except Indiana where they chose to run the ball. I don't think it's possible to hold him to under 250 yards at all. However if you stop the run and run against them, you do have a chance.

  • This game features two teams that are quarterback led. It seems that both of them have won their games on the sheer will of their leaders, often coming back in the 4th quarter or winning in overtime. It will take a solid effort on both offense and defense to beat them.

    Expect Purdue to throw often but mix in the run as soon as the Huskies commit. I see no signs that indicate Purdue is ready for the mixed option/passing attack the Huskies have. Based on the scientific Greg method (i.e. pure B.S.) - The Huskies should be able to gain over 250 yards running and 200 passing. Washington's weaknesses have been various - against Arizona they gave up rushing yards. Against UCLA they gave up passing yards. I expect a heavy pass rush against Brees.

    My gut feeling is Washington beating Purdue becuase A) Washington can run, B) I consider this a "home" game for the Huskies although it's really not.. and C) UDub can stop the run, although they don't ALWAYS do so.

    Prediction: Washington 31, Purdue 28.

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